ML Analysis — THE CONNECTICUT HOSPICE INC.
CCN 070038 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-24.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-52.4%, 4.2%]. P16 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.945 | -0.2139 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1147012.875 | -0.0603 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1210982.562 | +0.0550 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 15%Low turnaround probability (15%). Structural disadvantages in Reimbursement Quality and Net-to-Gross.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
58.8%
Distress Risk
$1.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
0.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P86. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CT distress rate: 74.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.323 | +0.188 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.007 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.048 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1147012.875 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.1M
Current margin: -5.6%
Projected margin: 0.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 1875
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.323 | 0.494 | 17.2% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |