ML Analysis — SAINT FRANCIS HOSPITAL
CCN 070002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
60
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.1%, 23.5%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2227437.492 | +0.0905 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2317166.700 | -0.0813 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 394.000 | -0.0383 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.976 | +0.0372 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1666543.299 | +0.0263 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.9%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P85. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CT distress rate: 74.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.748 | -0.207 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.251 | +0.162 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2227437.492 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 394.000 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.303 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.224 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: -4.0%
Projected margin: -3.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 11
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.303 | 0.331 | 2.8% | $2.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.748 | 0.833 | 8.5% | $559K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.524 | 0.532 | 0.8% | $112K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |