ML Analysis — COLORADO MENTAL HEALTH INST-FT LOGAN

🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.

Investability Score

Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.

/ 100 (F)

Financial Health0/25

RCM Upside5/25

Market Position4/20

Demand Defensibility8/15

Operational Efficiency0/15

Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x

Est. MOIC: 1.5x

Risk Factors:

Catalysts:

-10.6%

R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B

Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.9%, 17.7%]. P36 nationally.

Driver	Value	Effect	Explanation
Revenue/Bed	-23980.681	-0.2238	Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin
Expense/Bed	546936.628	+0.1368	Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin
Reimbursement Quality	0.000	+0.0580	Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m
Net-to-Gross	0.000	-0.0413	Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin
Bed Utilization Value	-22168.326	-0.0297	Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma

nan%

Distress Risk

Risk: Unknown

National distress rate: 49.3%

CO distress rate: 46.7%

Model AUC: 0.629

Factor	Value	Contribution	Direction
Occupancy Rate	0.924	-0.371	▼ risk
Medicare Day Pct	0.020	-0.053	▼ risk
Medicaid Day Pct	nan	+nan	▼ risk
Net To Gross Ratio	0.000	-0.164	▼ risk
Revenue Per Bed	-23980.681	+0.095	▲ risk
Beds	94.000	-0.007	▼ risk

RCM Grade

Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.

Metric	Predicted	90% CI	Percentile	Assessment
Denial Rate	25.0%	[2.0%, 25.0%]	P83	Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu
Days in AR	75.0	[25.0, 75.0]	P83	Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun
Clean Claim Rate	98.0%	[80.0%, 98.0%]	P0	Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third.
Net Collection Rate	99.5%	[90.0%, 99.5%]	P8	Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third.