ML Analysis — SOUTHWEST MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 061327 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.7%, 23.9%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3245283.478 | +0.2326 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3390292.956 | -0.2135 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.255 | -0.0201 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 23.000 | +0.0196 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.8%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
1.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P86. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.255 | +0.166 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.406 | +0.110 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3245283.478 | -0.098 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.474 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.402 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: -4.5%
Projected margin: 1.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 47
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.343 | 0.498 | 15.5% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.474 | 0.639 | 16.4% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.406 | 0.540 | 13.4% | $882K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P62 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |