ML Analysis — UCHEALTH GRANDVIEW HOSPITAL
CCN 060130 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.1%, 14.5%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2237133.636 | -0.0714 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1976813.818 | +0.0555 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.075 | +0.0364 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.091 | -0.0298 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.141 | -0.0256 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
56.6%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-1.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P71. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.156 | +0.342 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.141 | -0.102 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.189 | +0.101 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1976813.818 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 22.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.277 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: -13.2%
Projected margin: -1.5%
Grade: B
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.141 | 0.641 | 50.1% | $2.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.156 | 0.538 | 38.1% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 35.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.0% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |