ML Analysis — NATIONAL JEWISH HEALTH
CCN 060107 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health1/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-100.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-128.3%, -71.7%]. P0 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 28431845.923 | -3.2984 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 11571538.462 | +1.3948 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.565 | -0.0420 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.103 | -0.0240 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.566 | +0.0221 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 0%Low turnaround probability (0%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
47.5%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-47.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P100. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 11571538.462 | -0.590 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.103 | +0.391 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.566 | +0.088 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.128 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 13.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.415 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -47.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 35
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.566 | 0.687 | 12.1% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.103 | 0.400 | 29.7% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.456 | 0.473 | 1.7% | $258K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 39.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.9% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |