ML Analysis — YAMPA VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 060049 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.6%, 21.0%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3428963.323 | +0.2582 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3666125.235 | -0.2475 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.526 | -0.0197 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 34.000 | +0.0179 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.216 | -0.0154 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
55.3%
Distress Risk
$3.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P84. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.310 | +0.200 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.216 | +0.127 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3428963.324 | -0.109 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.471 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 34.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.286 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.8M
Current margin: -6.9%
Projected margin: -3.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.310 | 0.619 | 30.9% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.471 | 0.561 | 8.9% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.498 | 0.531 | 3.3% | $492K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P53 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |