ML Analysis — GLENDORA HOSPITAL
CCN 054157 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.6%, 21.0%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 251319.682 | -0.1854 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 272136.429 | +0.1706 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.321 | -0.0342 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 178880.158 | -0.0230 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.530 | +0.0181 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.8M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
2.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.712 | -0.173 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.396 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 251319.683 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.530 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 63.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.8M
Current margin: -8.3%
Projected margin: 2.9%
Grade: B
Comps: 129
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.604 | 0.721 | 11.7% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.712 | 0.715 | 0.4% | $23K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |