ML Analysis — OCEAN VIEW PSYCHIATRIC FACILITY
CCN 054153 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.7%, 21.9%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 318704.568 | -0.1760 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 354950.000 | +0.1604 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.583 | -0.1096 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.977 | +0.0682 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.821 | +0.0474 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.2M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-1.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.841 | -0.293 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.403 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.976 | +0.271 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 318704.568 | +0.074 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 37.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.2M
Current margin: -11.4%
Projected margin: -1.2%
Grade: B
Comps: 86
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.597 | 0.676 | 8.0% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |