ML Analysis — AURORA SAN DIEGO BEHAVIORAL
CCN 054095 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.9%, 18.7%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 375182.208 | -0.1681 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 329156.505 | +0.1636 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.601 | -0.1148 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.639 | +0.0303 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.515 | +0.0245 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.8%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
12.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P79. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.806 | -0.260 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.639 | +0.121 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 375182.208 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.032 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.029 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 101.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: 12.3%
Projected margin: 12.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 166
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |