ML Analysis — ALVARADO PARKWAY INSTITUTE
CCN 054075 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
35
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.4%, 22.2%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 481073.636 | -0.1533 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 512711.879 | +0.1410 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.267 | -0.0187 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.854 | +0.0187 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 410959.500 | -0.0153 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$292K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-5.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.854 | -0.305 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.179 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 481073.636 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.325 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 66.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $292K
Current margin: -6.6%
Projected margin: -5.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 132
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.325 | 0.403 | 7.9% | $292K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |