ML Analysis — COLLEGE HOSPITAL INC
CCN 054055 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.8%, 21.8%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 391707.791 | -0.1658 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 394497.674 | +0.1556 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.437 | -0.0677 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.926 | +0.0228 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.231 | +0.0199 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-0.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.926 | -0.372 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.099 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 391707.791 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.485 | +0.052 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 187.000 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: -0.7%
Projected margin: -0.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 220
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |