ML Analysis — CALIFORNIA REHABILITATION INSTITUTE
CCN 053039 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.8%, 29.8%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 935717.225 | +0.0889 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 999846.435 | -0.0809 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.099 | +0.0294 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.954 | +0.0244 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.927 | +0.0128 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
10.8%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.954 | -0.398 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.643 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.278 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 999846.435 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 138.000 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: 6.4%
Projected margin: 10.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 198
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.357 | 0.742 | 38.5% | $5.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.278 | 0.292 | 1.4% | $233K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |