ML Analysis — CENTRAL VALLEY SPECIALTY HOSPITAL
CCN 052055 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.7%, 23.9%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 537737.083 | -0.1454 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 533032.521 | +0.1385 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.821 | +0.0168 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 441530.640 | -0.0143 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Medicaid % | 0.000 | +0.0108 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
3.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.821 | -0.275 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.326 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 537737.083 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.275 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 96.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.3M
Current margin: 0.9%
Projected margin: 3.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 171
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.674 | 0.728 | 5.4% | $812K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.275 | 0.355 | 8.0% | $484K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |