ML Analysis — MONROVIA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 052054 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.
28
/ 100 (F)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.7%, 19.9%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 363447.225 | -0.1697 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 368771.286 | +0.1587 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.011 | +0.0549 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 139973.413 | -0.0243 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.156 | -0.0239 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$12.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
67.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.385 | +0.130 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.931 | +0.104 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.156 | -0.095 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 363447.224 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 49.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.2M
Current margin: -1.5%
Projected margin: 67.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 102
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.069 | 0.688 | 61.9% | $9.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.385 | 0.726 | 34.1% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.156 | 0.478 | 32.2% | $671K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |