ML Analysis — NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REHAB HOSPITAL
CCN 052047 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside8/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.1%, 23.5%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 695558.893 | +0.1185 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 773026.196 | -0.1125 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.045 | +0.0451 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.109 | -0.0291 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 56.000 | +0.0145 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
25.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.604 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.591 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.109 | -0.116 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 773026.196 | +0.048 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 56.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.9M
Current margin: 10.0%
Projected margin: 25.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 114
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.409 | 0.726 | 31.7% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.109 | 0.383 | 27.4% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.604 | 0.715 | 11.1% | $734K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |