ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL PARAMOUNT
CCN 052046 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.4%, 21.2%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 428086.559 | -0.1607 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 394539.458 | +0.1555 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.107 | +0.0270 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 196526.883 | -0.0224 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.176 | +0.0186 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.0%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
16.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P52. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.018 | -0.070 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 428086.559 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.223 | -0.065 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.459 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.500 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 177.000 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: 7.8%
Projected margin: 16.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 212
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.482 | 0.745 | 26.3% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.459 | 0.734 | 27.5% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.223 | 0.290 | 6.7% | $596K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P33 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |