ML Analysis — BROADVIEW INC.
CCN 051991 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.
29
/ 100 (F)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-23.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-51.3%, 5.3%]. P18 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 56297.074 | -0.2126 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 141780.778 | +0.1867 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.818 | -0.1773 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.980 | +0.0685 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 11128.026 | -0.0286 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 16%Low turnaround probability (16%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
159.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.198 | +0.304 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.165 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.980 | +0.272 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 56297.074 | +0.090 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 27.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: 159.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 68
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.198 | 0.680 | 48.2% | $3.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |