ML Analysis — MEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 051336 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
4.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-23.5%, 33.1%]. P73 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 5197245.231 | +0.5050 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 5025884.385 | -0.4150 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2319866.259 | +0.0480 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.565 | -0.0420 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 13.000 | +0.0212 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.3%
Distress Risk
$6.9M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
13.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P86. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 5197245.231 | -0.214 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.446 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.146 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.465 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 13.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.359 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.9M
Current margin: 3.3%
Projected margin: 13.5%
Grade: B
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.389 | 0.608 | 21.9% | $3.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.359 | 0.642 | 28.3% | $2.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.446 | 0.654 | 20.7% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P74 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P7 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |