ML Analysis — OJAI VALLEY COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 051334 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -23.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.0%, 23.6%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2027889.160 | -0.0457 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.052 | +0.0430 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.595 | +0.0254 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Commercial % | 0.087 | -0.0202 | Lower Commercial % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$10.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
1.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.595 | +0.101 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.913 | +0.101 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1641694.880 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.436 | +0.083 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.2M
Current margin: -23.5%
Projected margin: 1.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 71
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.087 | 0.653 | 56.6% | $8.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.436 | 0.687 | 25.1% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.595 | 0.614 | 1.9% | $90K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |