ML Analysis — MODOC MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 051330 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
7.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-20.6%, 36.0%]. P78 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4876015.750 | +0.4602 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4926784.375 | -0.4028 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2636722.215 | +0.0585 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.079 | -0.0533 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.782 | +0.0463 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 63%Model predicts 63% probability of positive margin. Key drivers: Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
15.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.695 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4876015.750 | -0.195 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.782 | +0.184 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 8.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.541 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: -1.0%
Projected margin: 15.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.305 | 0.611 | 30.6% | $4.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.541 | 0.769 | 22.8% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.782 | 0.880 | 9.8% | $448K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |