ML Analysis — MAYERS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 051305 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.4%, 25.2%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2609046.688 | +0.1437 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2644159.562 | -0.1216 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.767 | +0.0447 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 16.000 | +0.0207 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
15.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.314 | +0.196 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.688 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.767 | +0.178 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2609046.688 | -0.061 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.2M
Current margin: -1.4%
Projected margin: 15.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 54
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.312 | 0.653 | 34.1% | $5.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.314 | 0.630 | 31.6% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |