ML Analysis — SOUTHERN MONO HEALTH CARE DISTRICT
CCN 051303 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.2%, 27.4%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 5832077.294 | +0.5936 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 5595365.529 | -0.4851 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.354 | -0.0439 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.833 | -0.0358 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.617 | +0.0278 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.9%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P95. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.193 | +0.308 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 5832077.294 | -0.251 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.617 | +0.111 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.128 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 17.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.297 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: 4.1%
Projected margin: 8.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 54
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.193 | 0.630 | 43.7% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.574 | 0.653 | 7.9% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.617 | 0.638 | 2.1% | $244K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P60 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |