ML Analysis — ADVENTIST HEALTH TEHACHAPI VALLEY
CCN 051301 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.2%, 21.4%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2171635.120 | +0.0827 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2113313.240 | -0.0562 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.147 | +0.0155 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.7%
Distress Risk
$5.5M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
12.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P39. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.381 | +0.133 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.161 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.258 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2171635.120 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.268 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.5M
Current margin: 2.7%
Projected margin: 12.8%
Grade: B
Comps: 71
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.258 | 0.614 | 35.6% | $2.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.381 | 0.687 | 30.6% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.572 | 0.653 | 8.1% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P70 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |