ML Analysis — CASA COLINA HOSPITAL AND CENTERS FOR
CCN 050782 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.1%, 18.5%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3266758.097 | -0.1983 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2818129.194 | +0.1729 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.434 | -0.0218 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 31.000 | +0.0184 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.000 | +0.0108 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-10.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.351 | +0.162 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.320 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2818129.194 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.284 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 31.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.9M
Current margin: -15.9%
Projected margin: -10.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 79
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.284 | 0.531 | 24.6% | $2.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.351 | 0.709 | 35.8% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |