ML Analysis — COAST PLAZA HOSPITAL
CCN 050771 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -34.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.4%, 16.2%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 350379.675 | -0.1715 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 469891.350 | +0.1463 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.109 | +0.0266 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 83433.109 | -0.0262 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.170 | -0.0222 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Low turnaround probability (30%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
54.9%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-21.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P3. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.238 | +0.266 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.170 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 350379.675 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.071 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.290 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 117.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: -34.1%
Projected margin: -21.2%
Grade: B
Comps: 188
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.238 | 0.725 | 48.7% | $3.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.639 | 0.735 | 9.6% | $1.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.170 | 0.306 | 13.5% | $649K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P67 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |