ML Analysis — SUTTER SURGICAL HOSP - NORTH VALLEY
CCN 050766 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.5%, 19.1%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2225056.214 | +0.0901 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2144490.571 | -0.0600 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.639 | -0.0403 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.107 | -0.0238 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 238181.164 | -0.0211 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
26.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.107 | +0.388 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.548 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2225056.214 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 14.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.371 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.1M
Current margin: 3.6%
Projected margin: 26.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 52
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.107 | 0.617 | 51.0% | $3.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.452 | 0.636 | 18.4% | $2.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.371 | 0.642 | 27.1% | $988K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |