ML Analysis — CHAPMAN GLOBAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050745 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.5%, 17.1%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 281609.880 | -0.1811 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 277600.307 | +0.1700 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 77158.029 | -0.0264 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.141 | +0.0175 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.225 | -0.0161 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
55.0%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
23.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P55. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.274 | +0.233 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 281609.880 | +0.077 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.225 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 75.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.288 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.087 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: 1.4%
Projected margin: 23.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 144
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.274 | 0.715 | 44.1% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.625 | 0.723 | 9.8% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.225 | 0.373 | 14.8% | $367K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |