ML Analysis — ANAHEIM GLOBAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050744 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside9/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.6%, 14.0%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 296423.883 | -0.1791 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 269937.728 | +0.1709 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 29882.871 | -0.0280 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.101 | -0.0241 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.189 | -0.0121 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
61.5%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
23.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P96. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.101 | +0.394 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.189 | +0.100 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 296423.883 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.097 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.306 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 103.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: 8.9%
Projected margin: 23.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 170
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.101 | 0.722 | 62.1% | $4.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.714 | 0.728 | 1.4% | $209K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.306 | 0.306 | 0.1% | $2K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |