ML Analysis — GREATER EL MONTE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 050738 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.3%, 16.3%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 596537.385 | -0.1372 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 624370.144 | +0.1272 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.091 | +0.0318 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 172313.815 | -0.0232 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Medicaid % | 0.246 | -0.0190 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Low turnaround probability (30%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
58.0%
Distress Risk
$7.8M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
7.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P87. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.289 | +0.219 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.246 | +0.157 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.203 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 596537.385 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 104.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.307 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.8M
Current margin: -4.7%
Projected margin: 7.9%
Grade: B
Comps: 171
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.448 | 0.728 | 28.0% | $4.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.289 | 0.722 | 43.3% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.203 | 0.306 | 10.3% | $750K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P57 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |