ML Analysis — WHITTIER HOSPITAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050735 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.4%, 20.2%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 806772.649 | -0.1078 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 823578.750 | +0.1027 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.120 | +0.0235 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.165 | -0.0228 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 352966.768 | -0.0173 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.9%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P54. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.165 | -0.091 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.438 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 806772.649 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.172 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.101 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 148.000 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: -2.1%
Projected margin: 1.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 198
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.438 | 0.726 | 28.8% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.165 | 0.292 | 12.7% | $1.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.727 | 0.754 | 2.7% | $398K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |