ML Analysis — FRESNO SURGICAL HOSPITAL
CCN 050708 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.1%, 25.5%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3400583.593 | +0.2542 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3223537.333 | -0.1930 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.296 | -0.0251 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 27.000 | +0.0190 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.241 | -0.0161 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
11.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.241 | +0.264 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.347 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3400583.593 | -0.108 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.299 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 27.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.1M
Current margin: 5.2%
Projected margin: 11.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 68
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.299 | 0.599 | 29.9% | $3.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.241 | 0.680 | 43.8% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.653 | 0.654 | 0.1% | $10K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |