ML Analysis — PALOMAR MEDICAL CENTER POWAY
CCN 050636 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.3%, 27.3%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2146838.695 | +0.0792 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2224279.632 | -0.0699 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.194 | -0.0196 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.138 | +0.0183 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1352121.421 | +0.0159 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 48%Turnaround possible (48%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.630 | -0.097 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.289 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.194 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2146838.695 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 95.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: -3.6%
Projected margin: -1.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 171
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.194 | 0.355 | 16.1% | $3.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.630 | 0.741 | 11.1% | $735K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.711 | 0.728 | 1.7% | $250K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |