ML Analysis — JOHN MUIR MEDICAL CENTER - CONCORD
CCN 050496 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
65
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.1%, 27.5%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2385469.984 | -0.0897 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2198453.221 | +0.0864 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.093 | +0.0313 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.497 | +0.0261 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.145 | -0.0251 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 48%Turnaround possible (48%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
39.9%
Distress Risk
$10.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P25. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.722 | -0.183 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.145 | -0.100 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2198453.221 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 244.000 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.356 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.9M
Current margin: -8.5%
Projected margin: -6.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 194
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.145 | 0.289 | 14.4% | $9.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.638 | 0.745 | 10.7% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.722 | 0.766 | 4.5% | $294K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |