ML Analysis — NORTHBAY HOSPITAL GROUP
CCN 050367 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
68
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.4%, 30.2%]. P67 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3316641.774 | +0.2425 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3587439.858 | -0.2378 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2350646.473 | +0.0490 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.090 | +0.0320 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.152 | -0.0243 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 53%Turnaround possible (53%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
39.8%
Distress Risk
$13.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P42. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.709 | -0.170 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3316641.775 | -0.103 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.152 | -0.097 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.061 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 204.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.344 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $13.4M
Current margin: -8.2%
Projected margin: -6.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 219
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.152 | 0.291 | 14.0% | $11.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.595 | 0.738 | 14.3% | $2.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.709 | 0.735 | 2.6% | $170K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P32 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |