ML Analysis — MARINHEALTH MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050360 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.3%, 21.3%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.085 | +0.0336 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.737 | +0.0316 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 310.000 | -0.0252 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.154 | -0.0241 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.064 | -0.0092 | Lower Occupancy × Net-to-Gross decreases predicted |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Reimbursement Quality.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.4%
Distress Risk
$12.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P73. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.414 | +0.104 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.154 | -0.096 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.049 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 310.000 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.401 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1544715.290 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.9M
Current margin: -5.9%
Projected margin: -3.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 172
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.154 | 0.289 | 13.5% | $7.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.550 | 0.753 | 20.3% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.414 | 0.753 | 33.9% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P33 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |