ML Analysis — GOLETA VALLEY COTTAGE HOSPITAL
CCN 050357 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
7.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 14.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-20.7%, 35.9%]. P78 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4663874.333 | +0.4306 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3975778.625 | -0.2856 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.178 | -0.0278 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 24.000 | +0.0195 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1311847.758 | +0.0146 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.8%
Distress Risk
$8.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
22.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P83. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.281 | +0.226 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4663874.333 | -0.182 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.030 | -0.059 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.464 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.342 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.8M
Current margin: 14.8%
Projected margin: 22.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 63
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.342 | 0.619 | 27.8% | $3.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.281 | 0.709 | 42.8% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.506 | 0.661 | 15.5% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |