ML Analysis — UCI MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050348 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
62
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
13.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-15.0%, 41.6%]. P87 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4776531.723 | +0.4463 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4898322.967 | -0.3993 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 4516946.565 | +0.1209 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 397.000 | -0.0387 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.984 | +0.0374 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 72%Model predicts 72% probability of positive margin. Key drivers: Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.946 | -0.390 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.193 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4776531.723 | -0.189 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 397.000 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.335 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: -2.5%
Projected margin: -2.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 145
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |