ML Analysis — SUTTER TRACY COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 050313 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.1%, 25.5%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2072676.584 | +0.0689 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1901170.961 | -0.0301 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 77.000 | +0.0112 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.288 | -0.0090 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.386 | -0.0079 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.7%
Distress Risk
$5.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
11.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P1. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.386 | +0.129 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.051 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.288 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2072676.584 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 77.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.324 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.2M
Current margin: 8.3%
Projected margin: 11.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 148
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.386 | 0.722 | 33.6% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.288 | 0.369 | 8.1% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.625 | 0.723 | 9.8% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |