ML Analysis — ADVENTIST HEALTH UKIAH VALLEY
CCN 050301 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -39.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.5%, 18.1%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 4851670.860 | -0.3935 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3467209.240 | +0.2635 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2752869.144 | +0.0624 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.128 | +0.0210 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 50.000 | +0.0154 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
37.8%
Distress Risk
$7.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-35.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P94. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.794 | -0.250 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3467209.240 | -0.111 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.231 | -0.061 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.042 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.404 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.2M
Current margin: -39.9%
Projected margin: -35.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 104
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.231 | 0.477 | 24.6% | $5.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.555 | 0.701 | 14.7% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P66 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |