ML Analysis — ST. MARY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050300 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.7%, 27.9%]. P61 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 5.442 | +0.0248 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.217 | -0.0170 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.819 | +0.0167 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1303817.330 | +0.0143 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 231.000 | -0.0128 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 49%Turnaround possible (49%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Log(Beds).
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-0.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.819 | -0.273 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.193 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.217 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 231.000 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1591662.563 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: -1.4%
Projected margin: -0.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 198
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.217 | 0.292 | 7.5% | $3.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |