ML Analysis — BARSTOW COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 050298 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside8/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.4%, 30.2%]. P67 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2321296.467 | +0.1036 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2073611.267 | -0.0513 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.096 | +0.0303 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.125 | -0.0274 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.401 | -0.0226 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
40.8%
Distress Risk
$3.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
15.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P33. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.125 | -0.109 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.639 | -0.105 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.040 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2321296.467 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.188 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 30.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.6M
Current margin: 10.7%
Projected margin: 15.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 77
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.125 | 0.535 | 41.0% | $3.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.639 | 0.672 | 3.3% | $219K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P60 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |