ML Analysis — NATIVIDAD MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050248 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -30.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.1%, 20.5%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2763128.861 | -0.1362 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2120458.993 | +0.0755 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1579572.507 | +0.0234 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.213 | -0.0174 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.148 | +0.0154 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.8%
Distress Risk
$3.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-29.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P69. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.745 | -0.204 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.213 | -0.069 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2120458.993 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.113 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.194 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 144.000 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.6M
Current margin: -30.3%
Projected margin: -29.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 200
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.213 | 0.292 | 7.9% | $2.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.693 | 0.745 | 5.1% | $772K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P41 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |