ML Analysis — SHARP CORONADO HOSPITAL
CCN 050234 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.9%, 25.7%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2386140.983 | +0.1126 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2468879.407 | -0.1000 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.142 | +0.0171 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.220 | -0.0166 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1356560.207 | +0.0160 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.7%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
0.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P7. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.220 | -0.066 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2386140.983 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.569 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.076 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 59.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.280 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: -3.5%
Projected margin: 0.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 119
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.220 | 0.394 | 17.3% | $2.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.644 | 0.725 | 8.0% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.569 | 0.710 | 14.2% | $935K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P50 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |