ML Analysis — ALAMEDA HOSPITAL
CCN 050211 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.6%, 12.0%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2624006.167 | -0.1191 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.084 | +0.0339 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.158 | -0.0236 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 66.000 | +0.0129 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.092 | -0.0071 | Lower Occupancy × Net-to-Gross decreases predicted |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Reimbursement Quality.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
45.5%
Distress Risk
$6.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-43.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P60. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.158 | -0.094 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.580 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 66.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.385 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.085 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1612826.667 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.8M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -43.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 132
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.158 | 0.403 | 24.5% | $3.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.531 | 0.721 | 19.1% | $2.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.580 | 0.713 | 13.3% | $878K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |