ML Analysis — MEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 050189 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -23.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-46.3%, 10.3%]. P23 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3444897.154 | -0.2202 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2792555.231 | +0.1694 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.565 | -0.0420 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 13.000 | +0.0212 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.235 | -0.0176 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 22%Low turnaround probability (22%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
55.4%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-9.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P77. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.268 | +0.239 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.235 | +0.146 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2792555.231 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.296 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 13.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.224 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: -23.4%
Projected margin: -9.6%
Grade: B
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.268 | 0.654 | 38.6% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.296 | 0.642 | 34.6% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.542 | 0.608 | 6.6% | $996K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.6% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |