ML Analysis — SANTA ROSA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 050174 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.9%, 25.7%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2631372.312 | -0.1200 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2325314.585 | +0.1041 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.606 | +0.0286 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.111 | +0.0261 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1567168.703 | +0.0230 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$10.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-11.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.674 | -0.138 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.395 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.183 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2325314.585 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 272.000 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.5M
Current margin: -13.2%
Projected margin: -11.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 187
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.183 | 0.288 | 10.5% | $7.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.605 | 0.750 | 14.4% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.674 | 0.759 | 8.6% | $564K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |