ML Analysis — DAMERON HOSPITAL
CCN 050122 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -22.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.8%, 17.8%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 767795.212 | -0.1133 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 937065.947 | +0.0887 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.084 | +0.0339 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.116 | -0.0284 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 166638.165 | -0.0234 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-17.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.217 | +0.286 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.278 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.116 | -0.113 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 767795.212 | +0.048 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 170.000 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.3M
Current margin: -22.1%
Projected margin: -17.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 207
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.217 | 0.726 | 50.9% | $3.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.116 | 0.292 | 17.6% | $2.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.722 | 0.739 | 1.8% | $262K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |