ML Analysis — SAN MATEO MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050113 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-49.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-78.2%, -21.6%]. P6 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 6267986.348 | -0.5680 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2458834.478 | +0.1228 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1324363.299 | +0.0150 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 69.000 | +0.0124 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.238 | -0.0105 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 3%Low turnaround probability (3%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
45.8%
Distress Risk
$3.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-47.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P83. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 2458834.478 | -0.052 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.063 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.286 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.104 | +0.015 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.539 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 69.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.7M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -47.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 137
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.286 | 0.412 | 12.6% | $2.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.539 | 0.719 | 18.0% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 35.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.6% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |