ML Analysis — LOMPOC VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 050110 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.6%, 24.0%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2341475.383 | +0.1064 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2486058.967 | -0.1021 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 60.000 | +0.0138 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.000 | +0.0108 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.234 | -0.0092 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.8%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.437 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.479 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2341475.383 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.448 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: -6.2%
Projected margin: -2.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 124
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.521 | 0.724 | 20.3% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.437 | 0.701 | 26.4% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |